Statistics Everywhere

There were lots of interesting statistics in Publishers Weekly today relating to retailing and Print-On-Demand.

According to a Bowker study, the Mystery Genre is what Americans read most, accounting for 17% of all books sold. Science Fiction accounts for 5.5%, General Fiction snags 3%, and Horror scares up 2%.  The same study also found that chain bookstores account for 33% of booksales while the Internet sells 21%.

A study by the Association of American Publishers found that total industry sales rose 3.2% in 2007 to $25 billion. The largest gain is among adult hardcovers, which are up 7.8%. The "largest overall gains in the year came from the smallest segments." They note that ebook sales jumped 23.6% and audio books rose 19.8%.

PW editor Sara Nelson notes in her column that Amazon accounts for slightly more than 10% of online sales. She doesn’t seem  particularly worried about the company strongarming POD presses to use Booksurge, their POD service. She observes that big publishers use POD "only sparingly," that there remain many other venues of POD sales, and that lawyers she has contacted don’t see the grounds for an anti-trust suit.

And in a news brief, Lightning Source has partnered with On Demand Books, the company that makes the Espresso Book Machine that prints novels for readers on the spot. So far, there are a grand total of seven machines in operation…not exactly a major force in book retailing.

Home Again

I just returned home from speaking at the 8th Annual Forensic Science and Law conference at Duquesne University and I had a fantastic time. It was billed as a "national symposium on the intersection of forensic science and culture" and it was unlike any conference I’ve attended before.

That’s because most of ones I’ve been to have had to do with some aspect of mystery writing or the TV business and were attended by TV writers, novelists, entertainment industry executives, aspiring writers, and mystery fans. In other words, people like me.

But this conference was primarily attended by forensic scientists, prosecutors, medical examiners, criminalists, FBI agents, and students in various fields of forensics, investigation, and criminal law. I was honored and intimidated to be in such distinguished company. I was worried that what I had to say was not only irrelevant, but that they must have invited me by mistake.

I learned so much at this conference, and it started at the airport. I shared a limo into Pittsburgh with prosecutor-turned-author Robert Tannenbaum and for an hour we had a lively discussion about national politics and some high-profile criminal cases.

I dropped off my suitcase and the hotel and rushed to a  reception at the University for the conference faculty, where I stood out in the crowd…because I was the only goof in an untucked shirt and jeans. I was embarrassed about being so sloppily dressed but being from "Hollywood," I got away with my it.

I was glad to spot a familiar face in the bunch — my friend author Jan Burke was sitting in the back of the room, chatting with Dr. Katherine Ramsland, assistant professor of forensic psychology at DeSales University and Judge Donald E. Shelton, who teaches criminal justice at Eastern Michigan University. I joined their discussion and, once I got some food and Diet Coke in me, I relaxed a bit and decided to start introducing myself to strangers.

I’m glad I did. I had some fascinating conversations with James Starrs, professor of law and forensic sciences at George Washington University;  forensic artist Karen Taylor, and FBI agent James Clemente, who profiles serial killers and who does some consulting for Andrew Wilder, a writer/producer on CRIMINAL MINDS (who, to my amusement and relief, showed up later wearing jeans and an untucked shirt, too).

Before the reception was over, I spoke with Mark Safarik, a former colleague of Clemente’s in the Behaviorial Analysis unit who is now a consultant to law enforcement, and I had a chance to meet the host of the conference, Dr. Cyril Wecht.

I left the reception even more concerned about what I was doing there. These people actually knew things…I just make stuff up. I worried about whether I’d be laughed off the podium…especially when I saw how large the conference hall was and the hundreds of people in attendance, including a delegation of forensic scientists from China.

I attended Robert Tannebaum’s keynote address, then went back to the hotel, where I had drinks with Dr. Doug Lyle and before going to bed early (I’d had to get up at 4 a.m L.A. time that morning to make my flight to Pittsburgh).

The next morning, I went down to hotel restaurant for breakfast and shared a table with Mark Safarik, who enthralled me with stories from his law enforcement career. But he also made me feel a lot better about my presentation that morning. Seeing how interested and amused he was in what I had to say about writing, and incorporating forensics into story, made me feel much more confident and less awkward about being there.

As it turned out, my presentation went very well. I shouldn’t have worried and, with that task behind me, I was able to just sit back and enjoy the rest of the conference. I was fortunate to be able to spend a lot more time with the folks that I’ve already mentioned (particularly Clemente, Safarik, Ramsland and Taylor), but I also to have lengthy conversations with forensic toxicologist Dr. Micheal Reiders, criminal law professor and former Deputy D.A. Tamara F. Lawson, as well as many other experts and dozens of forensic science students. Safarik, the former FBI behaviorial analyst, told me it was one of the best conferences he’d ever attended.

At the closing night dinner for the faculty, Doug Lyle and I got a chance to talk for a few minutes with Dr. Baosheng Zhang, Dean of Beijing’s China University Institute of Evidence Law and Forensic Science. For Dr. Zhang, the conference seemed to be an eye-opening experience, particularly when it came to the discussion of the impact of popular culture (the "CSI" effect) on the criminal justice system and the media’s interaction with investigators and prosecutors. Unfortunately, just as we began to talk about how things are different in China, he got called away into another discussion by a member of his delegation. Doug and I wondered if it was happenstance  that we were interrupted, or if it was a polite way of avoiding discussing a touchy subject.

All in all, I was kept very busy and didn’t get any writing (or blogging) done at all. But I’m not complaining. I made a lot of friends, heard some fascinating presentations & discussions, and was asked by one of the attendees to speak at another forensic conference later this year. So I am sure that in the long run this experience will be good for my writing…if not for the book  I am currently rushing to finish.

NBC Fall Schedule

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NBC has already announced their fall schedule  — nearly two months earlier than usual. Variety reports that there are some surprises: SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE will do a live, prime-time edition on Thursdays, THE OFFICE is hatching a spin-off, and the long-running series SCRUBS and LAW & ORDER: CRIMINAL INTENT are missing from the schedule (and are presumably cancelled). New drama series include the revamped KNIGHTRIDER, MY OWN WORST ENEMY (starring Christian Slater), CRUSOE (a new take on Robinson Crusoe), and the Tom Fontana-produced series THE PHILANTHROPIST.

You can find the full schedule after the jump.

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Going Away…Again

I am off to Pittsburgh tomorrow to speak on Friday at Duquesne University’s Cyril H. Wecht Institute of Forensic Science and Law’s eighth annual "Where Fact Meets Fiction" conference. I’ll be joined by my friend Doug Lyle, author of  FORENSICS AND FICTION, as well as Robert Tanenbaum, Jan Burke, Linda Fairstein, CSI producer David Berman, CRIMINAL MINDS producer Andrew Wilder, 48 HOURS producer Gail Zimmerman, FORENSIC FILES producer Kelly Ann Martin, and a long list of judges, criminalists, cops, FBI agents, scientists and scholars.  This should be interesting, because I know nothing about forensics and only slightly more about writing.

Scribe Award Nominees Announced

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The Second Annual Scribe Awards, presented by the International
Association of Media Tie-in Writers, acknowledges and celebrates
excellence in licensed tie-in writing — novels based on TV shows, movies, and
games.  The IAMTW is proud to announce this years nominees for the Scribe
Award.

BEST GENERAL FICTION ORIGINAL

CSI NY: DELUGE by Stuart M. Kaminsky
MR. MONK AND THE TWO ASSISTANTS by Lee Goldberg
MURDER SHE WROTE: PANNING FOR MURDER by Jessica Fletcher & Donald Bain
CRIMINAL MINDS: JUMP CUT by Max Allan Collins

BEST GENERAL FICTION ADAPTED

AMERICAN GANGSTER by Max Allan Collins (nominee & winner)N221557

BEST SPECULATIVE ORIGINAL

LAST DAYS OF KRYPTON by Kevin J. Anderson

STARGATE ATLANTIS CASUALTIES OF WAR by Elizabeth Christiansen
STAR TREK: Q&A by Keith R.A. DeCandido

BEST GAME-RELATED ORIGINAL (SPECIAL SCRIBE AWARD)

HITMAN by William Dietz
FORGE OF THE MINDSLAYERS by Tim Waggoner
NIGHT OF THE LONG SHADOWS by Paul Crilley

BEST SPECULATIVE ADAPTED

RESIDENT EVIL: EXTINCTION by Keith R.A. DeCandido
52: THE NOVEL by Greg Cox
30 DAYS OF NIGHT by Tim Lebbon

BEST YOUNG ADULT ORIGINAL

BUFFY THE VAMPIRE SLAYER: THE DEATHLESS by Keith R.A. DeCandido
GOODLUND TRILOGY: VOLUME THREE: WARRIORS BONES by Stephen D. Sullivan
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NANCY DREW AND THE CLUE CREW #10: TICKET TROUBLE by Stacia Deutsch & Rudy Cohon

BEST YOUNG ADULT ADAPTED

TWELVE DOGS OF CHRISTMAS by Steven Paul Leiva (nominee & winner)
The Grandmaster Award honors a writer for his extensive and exceptional
work in the tie-in field. This year’s honoree is ALAN DEAN FOSTER.

Foster’s books include his
ground-breaking novelisations in 1975 of the STAR TREK animated series
and his subsequent novelisations of the first three ALIEN films, BLACK
HOLE, STARMAN, OUTLAND, PALE RIDER, ALIEN NATION and, of course, STAR
WARS (writing as "George Lucas"). He is also the author of scores of
original novels as well as the story for the first STAR TREK feature
film.


The Scribe Awards will be given at the Comic-Con Convention in San
Diego in July. The Special Gaming Scribes will be awarded at Gen Con Indy in August.

The IAMTW is dedicated to enhancing the professional and public
image of tie-in writers…to working with the media to review tie-in
novels and publicize their authors…to educating people about who we
are and what we do….and to providing a forum for tie-in writers to
share information, support one another, and discuss issues relating to
our field (via a regular e-newsletter, our website, and our active discussion group).
Our members include authors active in many other professional writer
organizations (MWA, PWA, WGA, SFWA, etc.) and who share their unique
perspectives with their fellow tie-in writers. Our name itself is a declaration of pride in what we do: I AM a Tie-in Writer. You can find out more about the IAMTW at our website.

Bookbuying by the Numbers

Publishers Weekly reports today that online booksellers account for 30.5% of book sales, chain book stores 32.5%, discount stores (like Wal-Mart and Costco) 13.5%, independant booksellers 8.7% , grocery stores 3.7% and author/publisher websites 1.8%.  The article states that combined internet sales (32.3%) could overtake big chain bookstore sales soon…but it seems to me that they still have a ways to go to eclipse the share claimed overall by brick-and-mortar sales (which now account for 67.7% of sales).

Projected Share of Consumer Book Purchase in 2008 (source Publisher’s Weekly, Fairfield Research, Greyhound Books)

Online bookstores: 30.5%

Chain bookstores: 32.5%

Discount Stores: 13.5%

Used Sales and Stores: 9.3%

Independent bookstores: 8.7%

Grocery/Spec/Newsstands 3.7%

Author/Publisher/Web: 1.8%

RESOLUTION

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I read an ARC of Robert B. Parker’s RESOLUTION and I really
enjoyed it….but less so than APPALOOSA, which  is the best Parker book since DOUBLE PLAY. Parker’s books are so short
and so similar, and feel so much like contemporary westerns anyway (particularly the Spenser novel POTSHOT and all the Jesse Stones), that I felt like I’d read it before. Actually, RESOLUTION feels more like a sequel to STRANGER IN PARADISE, the latest Jesse Stone, than it does to APPALOOSA. Lawman-for-hire Virgil
Cole is essentially Jesse Stone, right down to the philandering
wife/girlfriend he can’t let go of, but somehow it plays a lot better in the wild west than it does in present-day Massachusetts. The book, which comes out in June, left the door wide open for a sequel and I’m looking forward to it.

An iUniverse of Regret

This following is actually old news…I only stumbled on it today. CAGNEY AND LACEY executive producer Barney Rosensweig told Publishers Weekly back in August that he now regrets publishing his terrific book about the making of the show through iUniverse.

Rosenzweig developed a happy relationship with Susan
Driscoll, president/CEO of iUniverse, who he calls “a standup person
who was terrific to work with.” But he admits that most of the people
under Driscoll, “found me abrasive. They’re used to publishing books by
grandfathers for their grandkids. I was trying to put out a national
release.”

“I knew that I wouldn’t be in bookstores, but I
didn’t realize how devastating that would be,” said Rosenzweig. “Not
having a warehouse full of books that will accept books back from
booksellers if they don’t sell really puts a crimp in your ability to
sell. Booksellers are not interested in becoming book buyers.” He also
realized that his primary demographic was older female fans of the TV
show and, he said, “they’re really not savvy about the Internet. When
they saw me with Rosie O’Donnell on The View, they looked for the book in a bookstore, they didn’t order it online.”

Even with a guest appearance on THE VIEW to promote his book, he still couldn’t succeed with a book through iUniverse. That should tell you all you need to know about the chances for success with a POD book…(by comparison, a guest-shot on THE VIEW sent my sisters’ book VISUAL CHRONICLES to #1 on Amazon within minutes of the airing and led to thousands of sales through brick-and-mortar stores)

I know how he feels from first-hand experience with iUniverse. I reprinted my book UNSOLD TELEVISION PILOTS for free through the Authors Guild’s Back-in-Print program with iUniverse shortly before the broadcast of the one-hour, ABC Special based on the book. But even with that national exposure, and lots of articles in major newspapers and magazines that mentioned the book, the sales barely ticked up from the usual handful of copies I sell each month. That’s the reality of POD.